Hlooho ea matsete a sehlopha sa Mafora Amundi: Ke nts'etsopele e ka bang teng ea ntoa Ukraine?

Qetellong ea February, Russia Federation e ile ea qala ntoa ka ho hlasela Ukraine. Le hoja 'muso oa Russia o ntse o sa khone ho keteka katleho ea oona, ho fapana le hoo, o ile oa khona ho kopanya hoo e batlang e le lefats'e lohle, le ileng la nyatsa ka ho hlaka tlhaselo ea hona joale. Ka ho tšoanang, linaha tsa Bophirimela li tlile ka letoto la likotlo tse sebetsang hantle ho senya moruo oa tsona. Empa boemo bo tla tsoela pele ho ntlafala joang? Hlooho e hlomphuoang ea matsete ea sehlopha sa Mafora Amundi, Vincent Mortier, o ile a fana ka maikutlo ka sena, ho latela hore na ntho eohle e tla ba le pheletso ea eona. O ile a bolela esale pele ka ho khetheha.

Liphetho nakong ea libeke kapa likhoeli

Tsela e amohelehang ea ho tsoa mathateng bakeng sa Putin (hopola Cuba ka 1962?) - Lipuisano tse atlehileng pakeng tsa Ukraine le Russia le / kapa ho emisoa ha likotlo  

Liphello tsa moruo

• Libanka tse bohareng li tla khutlela puong ea tsona e tloaelehileng, kholo e tla lieha Europe 'me ho na le kotsi ea ho putlama ha moruo (ho fanoe ka litaba tse teng hona joale le liphoso tsa pholisi ea ECB ea ho nyoloha le ho fokotsa sekhahla)
• Barekisi ba thepa ba tsoang linaheng tsa US le LATAM le Chaena e tla ba lihlopha tse ratoang tsa thepa

Limmaraka tsa lichelete

• Ts'ireletso le ts'ireletso ea cyber li ntse li eketseha
• Likabelo tsa lik'hamphani tsa IT le tsona li ka rua molemo tlokotsing
• Litheko tsa matla li lula li le holimo ho fihlela ho na le mefuta e fapaneng ea bafani ba thepa (e leng taba ea lilemo tse 'maloa)

Russia e tla hlōla: bofelo ba puso ea Zelensky, 'muso o mocha

Liphello tsa moruo

• Ukraine e tla bula monyetla oa hore Russia e hatele pele Europe, haholo-holo linaheng tsa Baltic le Poland
• Ntoa ea lehae Russia / Ukraine ka tahlehelo e kholo ea bophelo
• Russia E Leka NATO ka Litlhaselo tsa Cyber ​​​​kapa Phetetso, NATO e Tla Araba, Russia e Tšela Mohala o Mofubelu
• China e tla batla ho bontša boemo ba eona tsamaisong e ncha ea lefatše
  -> Likhohlano tse ling li ka hlaha

Limmaraka tsa lichelete

• Litheko tse phahameng tsa matla
• Ho feto-fetoha ha 'maraka (limmaraka li tla itšoara ka taba ea hore Russia e ka tšela moeli o mofubelu o latelang) - ho fokotseha ha meputso e le kotsi ea sebele (Europe)
• Ho fumana matsete a bolokehileng, ho rekisa thepa ea metsi (equity le likalimo)
• Ho fokotseha ha euro

Ntoa ea lehae, ho thibella Kiev, palo e phahameng ea batho ba shoeleng (e tšoanang le Chechnya)  

Liphello tsa moruo

• Polao e sehlōhō Kiev le metseng e meng; palo e phahameng ea bahlaseluoa ha e amohelehe ho baahi ba Russia
• Mohlomong sena se ka bolela ho qabana ka kotloloho le linaha tsa Bophirima (empa eseng ho phahama ha nyutlelie)

Limmaraka tsa lichelete

• Thekiso ea 'maraka oa li-stock le thekiso ea tšabo

Russia e tla lahleheloa: Puso ea Putin e sokeloa ke khanyetso e matla

• khatello e ntseng e mpefala ea matla a ka hare ho naha, ho tla ba le merusu ea sechaba kapa ntoa ea lehae Russia

Liphello tsa moruo

• Russia e tla kena ho putlama ha moruo le mathata a lichelete ka sekhahla se fokolang sa lefats'e haeba Russia e ncha e fetoha "satellite ea Bophirimela"

Limmaraka tsa lichelete

• Ho rekisoa limmarakeng, tseo ho thoeng ke lefatše le arohaneng, li ka rekota thepa ea Amerika le ea Asia, mohlomong le ea Europe, haeba ho se na ho putlama ho hoholo ha moruo.

Ho Fokotseha ha Nyutlelie ho Tšehetsoa ke China: Mananeo a Rapid War

• EU/US e kenya tšebetsong likotlo tse ncha, pontšo ea matla ka mokhoa o tsoetseng pele. China e tla tšehetsa Bophirimela ho hana pefo.
• Russia e tla emisa liketso tsa sesole. Moruo o hatsetse, tsamaiso ea lipolotiki e tla sala.

Liphello tsa moruo

• Ho lieha ha thepa ea thepa (oli, khase, nickel, aluminium, palladium, titanium, iron ore) ho tla baka tšitiso le tieho ea khoebo.
• Tšusumetso ea kholo ea moruo oa lefats'e
• Russia e tla kena mathateng a tsamaiso ea lichelete le ho putlama ha moruo (botebo bo itšetlehile ka bolelele ba ntoa)
• Boiteko ba lichelete le lichelete bo tla ba matla. ECB e furalla ho tloaeleha
• Mathata a baphaphathehi Europe
• Thuto e ncha ea sesole sa Europe

Limmaraka tsa lichelete

• Khatello ea 'maraka oa matla e ntse e le teng
• Limmaraka tsa lichelete metsing a sa tsejoeng (ka lebaka la ts'okelo ea tsamaiso mebarakeng ea Russia)
• Escape to Quality (Sireletsehile Kou)
• Ho khaoha ha libanka tse ling tsa Russia ho tloha SWIFT ho tla tšehetsa tšebeliso ea litsela tse ling, tse kang li-cryptocurrencies (Etherum le tse ling)

Sephetho sa khohlano se tla nka nako e telele

Mesebetsi ea sesole e eme, Ukraine e hana, Russia e khopisa e ntse e hula ka likhoeli.

Ntoa ea nako e telele empa khohlano e matla e tlase

Liphello tsa moruo

• Mahlatsipa a sechaba le a sesole
• Tšitiso ea liketane tsa phepelo lefatšeng ka bophara
• Ho se khotsofale ho ntseng ho eketseha naheng ea Russia
• Ho eketsa likotlo khahlanong le Russia
• Katoloso ea NATO, ka monyetla oa ho kena ha linaha tsa Nordic, e ke ke ea lebisa khohlanong e tobileng ea sesole.
• Stagflation Europe
• ECB e tla lahleheloa ke boipuso ba eona. E tla qobelloa ho nahana hape ka theko ea thepa ea eona (ho tšehetsa litšenyehelo tsa ts'ireletso le phetisetso ea matla) ka kotloloho kapa ka tsela e sa tobang.

Limmaraka tsa lichelete

Ho loants'a maemo a lefats'e: Libanka tse bohareng li khutlela sehlohlolong ka ts'ebetso e tsosang khang qetellong ea nako e telele ea kotulo le maemo a lichelete a lefats'e.

• Ho loants'a sekhahla sa lefats'e: Libanka tse bohareng li khutlela mekhoeng e tsosang khang qetellong ea nako e telele ea lihlahisoa le maemo a lichelete a lefats'e.
• Litefiso tsa 'nete li tla lula li le sebakeng se fosahetseng: ka mor'a ho lokisoa, batseteli ba tla tsepamisa maikutlo ho li-equities, likoloto le ho batla mehloli ea kananelo ea sebele marakeng a Emerging (EM)
• Batla thepa e sireletsehileng ea metsi (chelete, litšepe tsa bohlokoa, joalo-joalo)

Khohlano e telele, e matla haholo ea sesole: ha re lebelle tse mpe ka ho fetesisa

• Tšebeliso e ka bang teng ea libetsa tsa nyutlelie
• Tšokelo ea tsamaiso ea lefats'e, stagflation ea lefats'e, ho putlama ha mebaraka ea lichelete e tla lula e tsitsitse haholo

Nako ea ntoa e ka lokafatsa khatello e matla ea lichelete. Litefiso tsa 'nete tsa tsoala li tla lula li tebile ho mpeng e tebileng.